IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS

After holding steady for ten months in the 5–6% range, annual consumer price inflation slowed to 4,6% in July from 5,1% in June. The July inflation print is the lowest in three years since July 2021, when the rate was also 4,6%. Lower annual rates were recorded for several product groups, most notably food & non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), transport, and housing & utilities.

The monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) was 0,4%, higher than the 0,1% rise recorded between May and June.

Food inflation dips further.

The annual rate for food & NAB was 4,5% in July, down from 4,6% in June. Food & NAB registered a slowing inflation trend since its most recent high of 9,0% in November 2023 and is currently at its lowest since September 2020 (3,8%).

While overall food inflation has slowed, bread & cereals is showing upward momentum. The category recorded an annual increase of 5,6% in July, up from June’s 5,2%. Products with the largest annual increases in July include rice (up 21,3%), pizza or pies (up 11,6%) and samp (up 6,9%). Maize meal prices rose on average by 5,1%. On a positive note, bread flour, cake flour, pasta and macaroni are cheaper than a year ago.

Meat is the most heavily weighed food group in the inflation basket, taking up just over a third of household spending on food. The price index for meat recorded a monthly decline of 0,4% and an annual rise of 1,0%.

Hot beverages continue to witness high inflation rates. The price index for the category increased sharply by 17,6% in the 12 months to July, up from 16,5% recorded in June. Large annual price increases were recorded for instant coffee (up 21,8%), drinking chocolate (up 17,7%), black tea (up 15,7%), ground coffee and coffee beans (up 14,6%) and rooibos tea (up 11,1%). Cappuccino sachets recorded the lowest price increase in this category, rising by 7,6% over the same period.

The graphs below show food and beverage products that recorded the most significant annual and monthly price increases in July.

Fuel prices decline for a second consecutive month

Except for public transport, most categories in the transport group witnessed lower annual rates. This includes new and used vehicles, running costs and fuel. As a result, annual transport inflation softened to 4,2% in July from 5,5% in June.

Fuel prices receded for a second straight month, declining by 3,6% in July. This followed a 4,6% decrease in June. Inland 95-octane petrol was 99c cheaper, falling from R24,25 in June to R23,26 in July.¹ The average price for diesel declined by 41c over the same period, from R23,76 to R23,35.²

New data for electricity, water and property rates

Most municipalities implement tariff increases in July. Overall, the housing & utilities index increased by 2,6% between June and July, leading to an annual increase of 5,3%. This contributed 1,3 percentage points to the overall inflation rate.

Tariff hikes were lower in 2024. Electricity tariffs increased by 12,1% (compared with 15,3% in 2023), water tariffs by 7,5% (compared with 9,6% in 2023) and property rates by 10,7% (compared with 8,4% in 2023).

An exploration of tariffs over time shows electricity prices rising the fastest over the last 15 years. Electricity tariffs recorded an average growth rate of 10,5% per year from 2009 to 2024, outpacing water tariffs (up by an average of 10,2% per year) and property rates (up by an average of 6,8% per year).

In the last 10 years, water tariffs have risen the most, increasing by an average of 9,9% per year. Electricity tariffs increased by an average of 9,5% per year, and property rates by an average of 6,6%.

A five-year analysis of the data, from 2019 to 2024, shows electricity tariffs outpacing water and property rates, growing by an average of 11,2% per year.

Stats SA surveys electricity, water and property rates across 39 municipalities, totalling 117 prices. The bulk of these were captured in July, with 10 prices – mainly from smaller municipalities – due to be surveyed in August.

For more information, download the July 2024 CPI statistical release and Excel files with indices and average prices here. The archive is available here.

¹ Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. Comparing prices for petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin (IP) (click here).

² Stats SA, CPI_Average Prices_All urban(202407) Excel file.

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