IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS

After a two-year hiatus, Stats SA has released an experimental set of provincial gross domestic product (GDP) data.

Provincial-level figures used to be included annually with the GDP release. Following the publication of the 2019 data, the provincial series was temporarily held back as Stats SA embarked on a complete revamp of national accounts. This included the benchmarking and rebasing of national GDP. The project, completed in 2021, resulted in an upward revision in the size of the economy. It also introduced changes to the structure of the supply and demand sides of economic activity.¹

Stats SA then turned its attention to provincial GDP. It conducted a similar overhaul, incorporating methodological improvements and new data sources.

Here are three facts from the new provincial GDP series.

Fact #1 Gauteng remains the economic powerhouse

Gauteng may be the smallest of the nine provinces in terms of area size, but it has the largest economy. In 2022, the province was responsible for R33 of every R100 produced by the South African economy (Figure 1). The economy of Gauteng is larger than the economies of KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape combined.

It comes as no surprise then that Gauteng is perceived as the best place to find work. Stats SA estimates that the province will receive the largest inflow of migrants in the 2021–2026 period, attracting 1,4 million individuals.² Western Cape is estimated to receive the second highest number of in-migrants (0,46 million) from other provinces and from abroad.

Northern Cape, which is the least populous province, is also the smallest contributor to national economic output, driving 2,2% of total production.

Fact #2 Mining is the biggest industry in four provinces

The structure of each provincial economy is unique (Figure 2). Finance, real estate & business services, for example, was the largest industry in Western Cape, contributing 30% to value added in 2022. Manufacturing was the second largest, contributing 16%.

Finance, real estate & business services is the most influential industry in three provinces (Western Cape, Free State and Gauteng). Mining is the largest industry in Northern Cape, North West, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Personal services, which includes activities related to health and education, was the most significant contributor to the economies of Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.

Manufacturing is an important player (appearing in the top four) in Western Cape, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Mpumalanga. In fact, these five provinces employed 90% of the national manufacturing workforce in 2021.³

Fact #3 All provincial economies grew in 2022

Not only is Gauteng the biggest provincial economy, but it also recorded the highest growth rate in 2022. South Africa’s GDP expanded by 1,9% that year, with all provinces registering positive growth (Figure 3). The economy of Gauteng grew by 2,8%, mainly pushed higher by finance, real estate & business services, as well as transport & communication.

These two industries also drove much of the upward momentum in Western Cape.

Northern Cape, Mpumalanga and North West recorded growth rates below the 1% mark. Although these provinces posted positive gains, the mining industry was a significant drag on growth in all three economies. At a national level, the mining industry contracted by 7,1%.

We would like your feedback

The provincial GDP discussion document is available here for download. The data are labelled experimental in nature with the purpose of inviting comment on the methodology, the range of data provided, and the way in which the figures are presented. If you would like to comment on the provincial GDP estimates, please contact Robert Mabunda at RobertMab@statssa.gov.za.

¹ Stats SA, A new and improved GDP is here! (read here).

² Stats SA, Mid-year population estimates, 2022. Table 10 (download here).

³ Stats SA, Manufacturing industry: Financial, Report No.: 30-02-03 (2021). Table G (download here).

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